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雙重標準

2014/01/19

近排同一位巴打交流, 有時真係唔明點解會出現咁既"迷思"... 而我知道其實好多人都出現同樣既情況, 睇下自己有冇份~

 

講返少少背景, 話說哩位巴打出Post問邊幾間行可以推介下, 所以我就同佢吹咗兩咀. 以下係我同哩位巴打對話內容既撮要(已經佢本人同意先公開的):
我: 你想開戶口?
A: 想開個大陸A股戶口, 但想找些低佣的
我: 咁你開咗Option戶口未?
A: 用梗"X通"玩
我: 咪鬼個用啦, 個Trading Platform咁差...
A: 都係既... 想問時間值有冇話每日會扣幾多?
我: 有, 睇Theta
A: Oic
我: 不過你用梗嗰間應該係冇嗰d風險參數睇的...
A: 係, 嘜Q都冇...
我: 咁就死得啦! 點計數...
A: 自己Setup Spreadsheet
我: 咁你都要知道個d Theta, Delta, Gamma值係幾多先有得計架
A: Yes, raw input

 

去到哩度大家發唔發現到有咩"迷思"令我諗唔通呢? 俾一分鐘時間大家諗下.......

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佣金係錢, 期權金都係錢! 同樣都係錢, 點解佣金就要貨比三家, 期權金就raw input了事???

係因為格價太方便?, 定係大家覺得嗰d風險參數係冇用的, 只要睇返對上/下一個行使價靠估就得呢?

 

作為一個精明既投資者, 應該一視同"銀", 以最小既成本博取最大既利潤, 揀低佣的, 無可厚非, 哩點我絕對認同! 但喺控制成本既同時, 我地都要應該要控制好風險同回報既管理, 而哩點卻係好多人都經常會忽略的

 

舉個簡單例子, 依家我同你估銀仔, 我做莊, 1賠1.8, 即係你買100蚊, 估中就收180, 估錯就輸哂一舊, 咁你會唔會同我賭? 傻既都知哩個係騙局黎... 因為你輸既機會係1/2, 即係50%, 但依家個賠率係1/1.8, 即係你輸既機會係55.55%, 比理論值高出一成幾!

雖然黎梗會開公定字係冇人知的, 但只要睇下以上既數據, 你就會知道係博唔過的... 哩個就係風險同回報既關係, 亦即係值博率

 

如將以上例子套用落期權度, 其實嗰d風險參數可以理解為賠率, 但如果連賠率都唔知, 即係你只知道估中公/字會羸, 但贏幾多就完全唔知... 情況就好似你去賭場賭大細, 將賭枱上面係冇寫明賠率一樣, 到你買完之後個Dealer先同你講: 等你中咗我先話你知賠幾多下~ 有咩分別?!

 

而就算知道個賠率, 你都要識計贏輸既機會率先可以分析到個值博率; 例如你三日前Long Call 咗 23200, 俾咗275點, 今日收市前五分鐘, 你張Call報梗189點, Delta=0.42, Gamma=0.0005, Theta=8.92, 而當時期指報梗23028, 咁個市聽日要升幾多你先可以回本唔洗輸? 答案係升204點, 假設其他因素不變, 介時23200 Call的理論值為275.16. 要知道哩d數字你先計到應該要止蝕定繼續, 否則同以上大細case係冇分別的

 

到你有實質數字喺手, 只要睇返最近港股既表現, 期指23170幾次都沖唔破, 且多次出現高開低走格局, 而個市要升到上23232你張23200 Call先打和, 咁即係話你個值博率係相對較低的, 仲未計如果個市黎梗牛皮多幾日, 個打和點將會更高

 

當然, 同估銀仔一樣, 黎梗會開公定字冇人知... 就好似上星期五咁, 最高見過23291. 但又有邊個可以準確咁俾到哩個數字出黎呢? 個市既升升跌跌我地經已控制唔到, 如果連個值博率既高低都分辨唔到, 咁你既贏面將會更低...

 

佣金一張最多慳你一百幾十, 期權金幾點都唔止哩條數啦... 係咪應該將個重點放返去哩度呢

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