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拖牛牛過馬路

2014/03/18

美國歐盟落實制裁俄羅斯, 普京稍後會向國會發表有關克里米亞的講話, 在烏克蘭局勢未有顯著舒緩的情況下, 歐美股市卻普遍升越1%, 金價, 債價, 油價, vix指數全跌, 市場避危情勢突然降溫

 

昨晚同一位網友傾計, 談及搏反彈既問題, 佢形容個市如果係急升/跌既時候, 就好似一架開梗200km既車沖梗埋黎, 如果喺哩個時候沖出馬路搏佢收得切制, 風險有幾大可想而知... 何不等架車收油或停定之後, 先過馬路呢? 哩個諗法基本上我係認同的, 但經驗卻令我得出另一個睇法: 雖然依家架車以時速3xxkm沖梗過黎, 但唔知點解有班人一齊沖出去過馬路喎... 傻的嗎?! 而尋晚正正就係發生梗比喻中既情況

 

回想起兩三年前炒歐債危機, 當時既市況比依家要差得多, 如果要形容就好似有架高鐵以全速洗梗過黎, 但嗰日道期卻出現單日轉向, 低開低走後最後一小時急速抽升反彈高收, 而當日既高低波幅接近300點, 於是我就膽粗粗跟咗哩班人一齊橫過路軌... 結果, 好好彩地我羸咗佢一千點道期, 創下我暫時最輝煌既戰績

 

今日類似既情況又再出現, 大戶尋晚沖得出去唔係因為佢地唔怕死, 係因為佢地知道架車係收得切制的, 跟住佢地一齊過馬路確係諗得過的, 最起碼衰起上黎都有班人陪葬

 

不過搏反彈都要搏得精, 用最小既成本搏取最大既利潤, 喺哩個時候我就會選擇用牛牛~

 

其實同樣既操作我喺二月頭經已做過一次, 亦有喺聚會既時候同大家分享過. 哩隻野有超過70倍槓桿, 一隻大概只係$300, 試問同樣既成本, 可以買到d咩期權? 而又可以做到哩個回報? 而隻野街貨量亦充足, 有27.7%, spread唔會好大, 雖收回價係21388, 但睇返今個月恒指既低位係21423, 如果個市黎梗真係破底隻野俾人打靶, 但你用咗long call黎搏反彈的話, 輸埋時間值加縮vol, 相信條數都唔會差得好遠

 

如果今日3點後個市都冇大幅走樣的話(期指最好收高於21560之上), 想搏反彈既朋友可以考慮下哩隻牛牛: "61613"

 

但記得唔好咁大注, 幾時都要做好風險管理, 因為唔係包生仔的!

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