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Sell In May (3)

2014/05/08

上回講到"sell in may"的傳統投資智慧會有如此驚人的威力, 除咗係因為多數公司喺五六月間出現除息外, 其實仲有另外一個更大既因素去左右其成效的, 哩個因素就係"自我應驗預言(self-fulfilling prophecy)"

 

自我應驗預言既原理其實好簡單, 就係俗語所謂既"疑心生暗鬼"; 每年每當去到五月時, 不少人因為深怕"五窮效應"作祟會導致股市下跌, 就算市況在没有明確的負面消息影響下, 投資者情願對手上的持倉先進行減持或拋售, 都不選擇持貨過五月, 結果就無形中對市場產生了沽售壓力, 其他本來對"五窮效應"不以為然的投資者見狀, 怕手上的持倉蝕本亦開始對之進行拋售, 如是者情況就不斷惡性循環, 結果"五窮效應"就被大眾的恐怖心理影響下自我應驗了

 

相同的例子仲有聞名於世的"丁蟹效應"; 故事的由來是由於秋官在92年播放的電視劇"大時代"中飾演"丁蟹"開始, 往後幾乎播出由秋官主演的電視時, 股市都出現不同程度的下跌. 最近期的一次為2012年5月"心戰"上演期間, 恰巧遇上法國總統選舉和希臘國會選舉令全球股巿帶來振盪, 結果恒指於5月份下跌了超過一成, 全球各地指數亦出現顯著下跌. "丁蟹效應"的威力非比尋常, 甚至連跨國證券經紀里昂證券也於2004年3月曾為此發表研究報告, 可見自我應驗預言對投資者的心理構成幾大既影響

所謂信心大於一切, 如今個個都出黎講"sell in may & go away", 正常人都選擇先埋單計數啦, buy force咁薄弱, 要大幅反彈談何容易

 

今朝期指沖過上去後好快又打回原型, 高位為21774, 與昨日高位21769只相差5點, 反映高位缺乏承接力, 短期走勢仍然較弱. 依家指數仲要低過開市位, 個人認為市況仲未好得住的, 全世界都睇住個雙底黎做人, 現階段想博反彈既朋友真係要諗清楚...

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