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魔力

2014/06/23

精彩過後個市今日又回復平靜, 而且仲要係非常靜! 全日成交得440億... 不過尋日就算有成700點波幅都好, 只有期貨市場成交暢旺, 大市成交都只係得580億, 睇黎低成交的日子要去到世界盃完場後先會有明顯改善

 

昨日勢凶夾狼單日轉向大跌四百點, 而低位22747經已輕微跌穿咗06/06的低位22815, 不過今日市況已喘定並作出小幅反彈, 令下方形成了一個短期的雙底形態, 睇黎經過尋日既一役後, 大戶已經收夠籌, 初步估計短期內再向下大跌的機會並不大

 

尋日230 put出現超大成交, 成交量達6362張之多, 但今日該位的OI並沒有明顯變動, 只輕微加倉10張. 雖然我地係唔會知道嗰5759張OI係主動SHORT定主動LONG為主, 但只要係PUT的最大倉位, 指數普遍都係會抽返上上面結的(CALL側相反). 以下係近半年出現以上所講的實際情況:

月份, 大倉位, OI, 當時期指水平, 結算價
MAY, 23200 CALL, 4080, H: 23217@28/05, 23134
APR, 22600 CALL, 3560, H: 22822@23/04, 22212
MAR, 22000 PUT, 4767, L: 21701@25/03, 22077
DEC, 23000 PUT, 6254, L: 22845@23/12, 23278

 

從以上資料可見, 當指數於結算前升/跌破CALL/PUT的大倉位時, 就會有一股無形既力量將佢拉返上/落去. 同樣地, 從今日的走勢睇, 似乎哩股力量又再一次作祟, 估計今個月將結高於23000之上的機會都幾大

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