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762聯通

2015/11/05

是咁的, 話說我未入十一月之前經已LONG CALL左762 行使價10蚊, 哩段時間我一直比梗利息, 最慘係佢唔上唔落, 搞到我止又唔係溝又唔係… 今日佢終於要爆了~~~

 

依家我渣住超過一倍BUFFER喺手, 又係用返1928嗰招, 睇下最近一年762單日大升(>4%)後翌日既歷史表現:

2015-01-09,五 +5.26%
2015-01-12,一 -0.89%
2015-01-13,二 +3.42%
2015-01-14,三 +1.22%

 

2015-02-04,三 +4.36%
2015-02-05,四 +3.37%
2015-02-06,五 -0.78%

 

2015-04-01,三 +5.59%
2015-04-02,四 +3.53%


2015-04-08,三 +5.12%
2015-04-09,四 +2.80%

 

2015-07-09,四 +8.00%
2015-07-10,五 +3.89%

2015-07-13,一 +2.14%

 

2015-07-21,二 +5.86%
2015-07-22,三 -0.87%
2015-07-23,四 -1.05%

 

2015-10-12,一 +5.50%
2015-10-13,二 +3.86%
2015-10-14,三 +0.74%

 

近六次單日大升後, 有四次翌日係再升的, 而四次的平均升幅有成3.66%咁多, 另外兩次翌日下跌的平均幅度只有0.88%, 即係話雖然續升的機會率唔算話好高, 只有2/3, 但勝在可見所需承擔的風險不大而回報又高, 假設人類既行為會不段重複,1/3機會會輸0.88%, 另一邊2/3機會賺3.66%, 你會點揀?

而以上所講既只係追入既情況, 我依家渣住超過一倍BUFFER喺手, 即係我所面對既情況係1/3機會賺少D, 2/3機會賺多一倍, 唔係唔坐呀嘛!!!

 

大市方面港股真係好無力, 大陸升到啪啪聲但我地完全唔跟, 仲一度倒跌成百, 睇黎上方阻力應該幾大, 但俾我揀我會PERFER沽700(而其實我收市前已經PUT左, 行使價142.5), 原因尋日已經講左, 如果個市真係回, 貴為最重磅既成份股, 相信700總不能獨善其身

 

700下星期二業績, 哩段時間有機會先偷步炒上/落, 如果真係炒落當然無問題, 但如果不跌反升或RANGE, 到時平PUT再SHORT CALL返165蚊應該都唔會點輸錢, 事關該位為本月最大CALL倉, 有成23223張咁多, 暫時睇都好安全

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