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血的教訓

2016/06/16

前日A股入摩撞柱, 個市就死唔去仲倒升返轉頭; 尋晚老美唔加息, 今日就低開加係咁跌跌跌穿埋尋日個低位… 真係CHOK上CHOK落俾人CHOK到頭都甩埋咁濟... 但政策市就係咁, 如果你咁就已經想講粗口, 咁我只能夠講句: 少年… 你實在太年輕了~ 一個民調令港股今日已下跌超過1200點, 聽日又另一個民調令個市反彈返1000點又有咩咁出奇?

 

回想當年(2011年)炒梗歐債危機既時候, 當時我堅定咁認為無論希臘班友點賴皮都好, 到最後歐盟點都會開綠燈放水救班死窮鬼救佢地的, 否則只會齊齊攬炒, 心諗班友無理由咁蠢玩自己. 誰不知當時既希臘總理帕潘德里歐突然提出全民公投決定係咪繼續留歐! 我X佢X味呀! 佢係咪傻X左!!! 佢知唔知佢哩句說話令到我有幾傷呀!!! 我嗰時重倉近價Short Put左俾人入乸哂… 當時我真係好想用我即刻買張機票飛去希臘直接隊LUM佢, 然後叫阿媽重沽期指俾我著草用同當安家費

 

但好快我就冷靜落黎… 因為我知道另一個機會已經出現左~ 如果係咪繼續留歐既決定係落喺班希臘國民手中, 咁就只有死路一條… 今次掂喇!!! 我仲唔沽爆你! 全重倉LONG PUT爆佢! 點知過幾日, 哩條X家X又話切回公投既決定… 佢老X! 淨係哩兩棍我已經唔見左40%既身家… 當時我真係好想喺網上召集俾哩條HiHi害到雞毛鴨血既苦主, 一人夾一蚊請個大隻佬去希臘則佢食屎! 然後仲要迫佢嗌好好味呀~~~ 嗌到我地滿意為止!

 

但好快我又冷靜返落黎, 因為我相信除我以外, 應該都有唔少大戶都中左哩條X街計(我諗薩爾科齊都中招... 因為佢當時都小到媽媽聲), 佢地咁有錢一定會搵人做野的! 咁我就可以坐享其城, 全不費吹之力就報到哩個深仇大恨… 我實在太聰明!

 

哩條X樣到依家仲未死, 佢既家人亦健在, 2號既時候仲要以為自己好醒咁出黎講對英國脫歐既睇法… 感覺就好似細細粒同大家分享減肥既心得咁... 大家睇下佢依家仲可以咁得戚, 你地認為當年既一場大龍鳳其實邊個先係幕後主腦呢?

 

哩個故事送左我兩個血的教訓:
1) 面對政策市, 中間發生既事全部係集訊黎, 一定要望主個大方向黎堅定地同佢玩, 如果我當日係夠堅持, 先唔好講可能賺到幾多, 最起碼肯定唔洗輸得咁甘…
而依家既大方向經已非常看顯, 股市跌, 英磅跌, 債息跌, 其中德國及日本十年債更跌到負數(雖然日本經已負左一段時間), 黃價升, 日元升, IV升, 以上全部都係指住同一個方向的

2) 面對大是大非既局面, 你入場既結果只有Double or Nothing! 而如果你根本無Total Loss既必死決心, 根本就無資格去講Double, 諗都唔好諗! 因為你只會變成一隻驚弓之鳥, 個市放個屁已經可以震走你

 

另外就係唔好見IV高好似幾好分就走去做SHORT, 因為今日所謂既高只係比你地平時睇開既高咁解, 而聽日就可能會變成係低... 喺錯邊加爆IV既情況下, 先唔好理你仲夠唔夠孖展頂, 淨係你個人心理好可能已經頂唔順! 仲學咩人講堅持...

 

以上都係我既血的教訓, 而我知道所有喺期權輸大錢既個案, 無一個唔係輸Short Put的! 一個民調已經令個市跌千幾, 真係脫歐會發生咩事邊個知? 既然都係摶, 可不唔做張超價外既平價Put當末日咁玩呢? 倍數 or Nothing, 點計都Efficient得多

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